KUALA LUMPUR: RHB Research has raised its 2022F total industry volume (TIV) to 650,000 from 615,000 in light of the strong year-to-date (YTD) TIV and easing supply chain bottlenecks.
“Note that the YTD TIV of 447,000 does not include July/August figures for marques that report numbers each quarter.
“Our new TIV estimate has factored in the ongoing component shortage and potential worsening conditions from Europe’s energy crisis,” RHB said in a report.
The TIV for the first eight months of 2022 stood at 447,209 units, according to the Malaysian Automotive Association (MAA).
MAA also noted that the TIV for August was at 66,614 units, up 36% from the 48,922 vehicles sold and delivered in July 2022.
RHB said orders were gradually recovering month-on-month and should continue to do so, as consumers adapt to the post-sales and services tax prices.,
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“With Budget 2023 coming up, we expect the Government to provide greater clarity on the excise duty reform that is meant to be implemented in 2023.
“In line with its sustainability agenda, the Government may also introduce
incentives to spur the domestic adoption and production of EVs, which may include: i) incentives to spur EV charging, ii) incentives to spur original equipment manufacturers’ local assembly of EVs, and iii) a longer tax-free period for the purchase of EVs,” the research house said.
RHB has maintained its “neutral” call on the sector despite expectations of a strong second half of 2022 as it remain cautious on softening car sales in 2023, weighed by macroeconomic headwinds.
“Our top picks are Bermaz Auto and Sime Darby. Downside risks that may hamper the sector's recovery include persistent shortages of key components and delays in new model launches. Other risks: Tighter
bank approvals for car loans and a weaker ringgit,” it added.