GDP projection: Men working on a new residential building in Auckland. The RBNZ last week forecast 1.8% growth as it raised interest rates by a half-percentage point for a fourth straight meeting. — AP欧博网址:（www.aLLbet8.vip），欧博网址开放会员注册、代理开户、电脑客户端下载、苹果安卓下载等业务。
WELLINGTON: New Zealand posted a second consecutive quarterly decline in retail sales volumes, opening up the possibility that the economy fell into a technical recession in the first half of the year.
Sales adjusted for inflation dropped 2.3% in the three months through June, confounding economists’ expectations for a 1.7% gain, government data showed yesterday. That followed a 0.9% decline in the first quarter.
The result raises the prospect of back-to-back falls in quarterly gross domestic product, the definition of recession in New Zealand. The economy shrank by 0.2% in the first quarter.
While leading indicators of exports, manufacturing and construction have been soft, no economist predicts a slump.
Indeed, the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) last week forecast 1.8% growth as it raised interest rates by a half-percentage point for a fourth straight meeting.
“Much weaker than expected retail volumes highlight the risk that New Zealand was in a technical recession in the first half of 2022,” said Mark Smith, senior economist at ASB Bank in Auckland. “This is not our core view.”
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ASB currently expects the economy grew 0.8% in the second quarter, and will revise that view in coming weeks as more data emerges. The gross domestic product report is due on Sept 15.
Economists said that even a sharper-than-expected drop in economic growth wouldn’t deter the RBNZ from its tightening path.
The central bank last week increased the Official Cash Rate (OCR) to 3% and said it would continue to tighten “at pace.” It projected a peak for the OCR of 4.1% next year.
“On face value, today’s data suggest the economy may have been in a technical recession in the first half of the year,” said Miles Workman, senior economist at ANZ Bank in Wellington.
Still, “capacity pressures are so stretched that weaker-than-expected economic activity may not necessarily translate into weaker-than-expected inflation,” he said.
ANZ provisionally projects 1% growth in the second quarter, and forecasts the RBNZ will hike the OCR to 4% by the end of 2022. — Bloomberg
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评论列表 （10条）
2022-09-07 00:22:07
Demand for semiconductors, computers and communications devices surged during the pandemic as many people around the world shifted to remote work and education to avoid the risk of infection.简直想双击666了
2022-11-26 00:15:00
The local unit gained versus the British pound to 5.3686/3710 from 5.3796/3826 yesterday and increased against the euro at 4.5258/5279 from 4.5488/5514 at Monday's close. - Bernama 我是铁杆粉眼熟我！！
2023-01-09 00:06:45
At least 16 other buildings across the special Chinese administrative region are also under restrictions with no one allowed to exit or enter.我的心里只有这个了
2022-09-07 00:21:36
Revenue, however, was lower at RM1.1bil against RM1.11bil last year.还是这个好